Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.324929 2.463037 2.613505 2.791323 2.998091 3.234088 3.528708
2025-08-24 2.167713 2.338034 2.531542 2.771830 3.068682 3.433282 3.933101
2025-08-31 2.062637 2.251696 2.472763 2.757195 3.125044 3.604408 4.318059
2025-09-07 1.998432 2.203868 2.450068 2.776945 3.217942 3.826891 4.816517
2025-09-14 1.894175 2.099014 2.347423 2.682377 3.144087 3.801525 4.924405
2025-09-21 1.841102 2.052981 2.313922 2.673069 3.182798 3.940688 5.334925
2025-09-28 1.778053 1.990645 2.255091 2.624014 3.158024 3.976350 5.567115
2025-10-05 1.763754 1.988432 2.272838 2.679284 3.289195 4.279264 6.436369
2025-10-12 1.760034 1.998868 2.306881 2.758815 3.465285 4.694492 7.824989
2025-10-19 1.723997 1.965294 2.279482 2.746899 3.493907 4.846017 8.653445
2025-10-26 1.696657 1.941827 2.264342 2.751380 3.549011 5.059880 9.900148
2025-11-02 1.650376 1.891514 2.209880 2.693240 3.491929 5.030821 10.228499
2025-11-09 1.616782 1.858382 2.179763 2.673187 3.503984 5.164939 11.519904
2025-11-16 1.586729 1.828835 2.153195 2.656567 3.519828 5.311341 13.226057
2025-11-23 1.560027 1.802831 2.130393 2.644128 3.541503 5.477297 15.660317
2025-11-30 1.544653 1.791526 2.127761 2.662874 3.622237 5.813845 21.899964
2025-12-07 1.499077 1.737630 2.062023 2.577036 3.496335 5.575844 19.865354
2025-12-14 1.478592 1.717727 2.044839 2.568963 3.520182 5.754953 26.135081
2025-12-21 1.448498 1.683835 2.006293 2.524321 3.468993 5.713371 28.397448
2025-12-28 1.447177 1.689600 2.025617 2.575328 3.612202 6.287156 190.876973
2026-01-04 1.451562 1.703306 2.057002 2.648385 3.811649 7.168823 NaN
2026-01-11 1.433639 1.685087 2.039964 2.637699 3.830660 7.420480 NaN
2026-01-18 1.420351 1.673076 2.031845 2.641969 3.883369 7.842816 NaN